The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 28 and Sunday, December 29 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be under the influence of high pressure as warm, sunny and dry conditions prevail across the region.  In Texas, mild conditions will continue both days as temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s both Saturday and Sunday.  The High pressure to the east will funnel some moisture into the region tomorrow, but skies will remain mostly sunny to sunny. Winds will be moderate from the southwest throughout the day and overnight but will pick up their intensity tomorrow afternoon.  Southwestern winds above 25 miles per hour are expected from Oklahoma City to the northern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Humidity will remain low with zero percent chance of rain over the weekend.  However a significant moisture gradient will occur across the region on Sunday with humidity expected to be above 50% along the eastern edge and below 50% to the west.  Temperatures overnight will be mild with reading in the mid to upper 40s.  Similar conditions exist to the north with a weekend of sunny warm weather. Temperatures will reach the upper 50s to low 60s today and tomorrow with nighttime readings around 40.  Humidity will remain low today and tomorrow with winds showing moderate strength gaining in strength tomorrow afternoon.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the east then the lower winds move north across Illinois towards the Great Lakes.  The upper elevation winds are deflected towards the east. Tomorrow the trajectories will straighten moving directly towards the upper Great Lakes region across Missouri.  At the release site, in the Ozark Mountains, clear sunny weather will predominate today with temperatures reaching the 50s cooling to the upper 30s overnight and into the upper 50s tomorrow.  Partly cloudy skies will occur over night and tomorrow but overall conditions should remain dry.  Winds, as in the rest of the region, will be moderate today from the southwest building to strong conditions tomorrow.  The trajectory for today and tomorrow shows relatively good conditions for entrainment and travel down-wind of the pollen release site.

 

OUTLOOK: Saturday***Moderate Threat today*** mixed conditions for pollen release Sunday: *** Severe Threat today*** favorable conditions for pollen release.  Warm conditions today and tomorrow with sunny skies moving towards partly cloudy conditions will prevail.  Temperatures today will just get into the low 50s and therefore mixed conditions for release are expected.  However it has been some time since conditions were even close to being this good therefore significant release may occur in places where the sun warms the area.  A moderate threat for entrainment and travel exists today because the trajectory characteristics show little buoyancy in the atmosphere.  Tomorrow atmospheric conditions improve with buoyant atmospheric conditions and warm temperatures across the region.  Favorable conditions for release are forecast and a severe threat for downwind travel is expected.  The communities that may be affected include the St. Louis urban area.. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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