The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 28 and Sunday, December 29 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be under the influence of high pressure as warm, sunny and dry conditions prevail across the region.  In Texas, mild conditions will continue both days as temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s both Saturday and Sunday.  The High pressure to the east will funnel some moisture into the region tomorrow, but skies will remain mostly sunny to sunny. Winds will be moderate from the southwest throughout the day and overnight but will pick up their intensity tomorrow afternoon.  Southwestern winds above 25 miles per hour are expected from Oklahoma City to the northern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Humidity will remain low with zero percent chance of rain over the weekend.  However a significant moisture gradient will occur across the region on Sunday with humidity expected to be above 50% along the eastern edge and below 50% to the west.  Temperatures overnight will be mild with reading in the mid to upper 40s.  Similar conditions exist to the north with a weekend of sunny warm weather. Temperatures will reach the upper 50s to low 60s today and tomorrow with nighttime readings around 40.  Humidity will remain low today and tomorrow with winds showing moderate strength gaining in strength tomorrow afternoon.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northeast over northeastern Oklahoma and through Missouri as it tracks into the upper Mississippi River Valley and the Great Lakes Region. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  Sunny skies and warm temperatures will prevail at the source site reaching into the 60s today.  Moderate winds from the south to southwest will prevail making for good conditions for pollen release along with entrainment and travel.  Overnight conditions will be relatively mild with temperatures in the 40s and clear conditions. Sunday: Similar conditions will prevail with warm sunny conditions, but strong winds will move across the region.  Good characteristics for entrainment and travel occur in the forecast trajectories so downwind communities should be affected.  However, the strong winds may keep the pollen better entrained lessening the overall concentrations deposited but significant levels are expected.

 

OUTLOOK: Saturday: ***Severe Threat today***favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunday: ***Severe Threat today***favorable conditions for pollen release.   Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains will be stable with temperatures reaching the low 60s both days with low humidity and dry conditions.  Moderate winds from the southwest are expected today increasing in intensity tomorrow with strong wind conditions reaching upwards of 25 miles per hour.  These characteristics will result in favorable conditions for pollen release today.  The air mass trajectory from the source passes directly over Tulsa before moving over Missouri, towards the Great Lakes.  Therefore a severe threat exists for entrainment and travel across eastern Oklahoma (Tulsa) and Missouri (St. Louis). Sunday:  Similar conditions will prevail and thus favorable conditions for release are forecast and a severe threat to the same communities exists.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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