The
Mountain
Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
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Low |
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Moderate |
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Moderate |
Date Issued:
Mountain Cedar Location(s):
Regional Weather: Monday, December 30 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will see the possibility of rain and thunderstorms today as a large low pressure moves across the region. Moisture from the Gulf will clash with colder air moving south from the upper mid-west to cause instability across the region, especially along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau and along the Gulf Coast into Louisiana. Severe Thunderstorm warnings are posted for the region. Cloudy conditions will occur to the north with the possibility of showers or light rain throughout the region. In Texas temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 60s and low 70s, but with relatively high humidity throughout the day and into the evening. Winds will be moderate from the southwest until the front passes then wind strength will increase to strong shifting to the north to northwest. Clearing will begin tonight from the west with temperatures in the upper 30s to 40s across the region. On Tuesday skies will be sunny with conditions beginning to dry out. To the north conditions will be seasonally warm with high temperatures in the mid- to upper- 50s today, but cloudy skies and the chance of precipitation exists. Winds will be moderate from the south to southwest switching to the northwest overnight. Skies will begin to clear late tonight and into tomorrow with overnight low temperatures in the 30s and tomorrows highs only reaching the mid 50s.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the east and then southeast out over the Gulf of Mexico. Each of the trajectories shows the turbulent atmospheric conditions that will occur in southeastern Texas today and tonight. For example the Austin trajectory shows a relatively jerky pathway as the winds continually shift. The Austin trajectory also shows the best characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel away from the source, the other two showing relatively stable or sinking atmospheric conditions at the low levels. However, conditions at the sources will be warm but humid with the possibility of precipitation through the night. The trees are nearing the peak of the pollen release season therefore some pollen may be released but the overall weather conditions should discourage it. In addition atmospheric conditions are not particularly good for pollen entrainment and transport downwind.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today ***mixed conditions for pollen release today. Cloudy skies, humid conditions but warm temperatures coupled with moderate to strong winds across the region result in mixed conditions for pollen release today. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected. However, widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected to dampen any significant release. If those conditions fail to develop some release is possible. The trajectory characteristics do not show perfect atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. To the west, the winds move the atmosphere along the ground, which usually results in the filtration of entrained particles as they travel. Whereas to the east erratic wind directions and turbulent atmospheric conditions will make entrainment and travel may result in some pollen movement downwind. If so, the communities along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau towards the Gulf of Mexico are at heightened risk. This includes Austin, San Antonio, New Brunfels, Corpus Christi and College Station.
Trajectory Start (s)
(shown by *
on map):
Junction, TX
Prepared by: Peter
K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience,
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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