The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 30 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Monday, December 30 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will see the possibility of rain and thunderstorms today as a large low pressure moves across the region.  Moisture from the Gulf will clash with colder air moving south from the upper mid-west to cause instability across the region, especially along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau and along the Gulf Coast into Louisiana.  Severe Thunderstorm warnings are posted for the region.  Cloudy conditions will occur to the north with the possibility of showers or light rain throughout the region.  In Texas temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 60s and low 70s, but with relatively high humidity throughout the day and into the evening.  Winds will be moderate from the southwest until the front passes then wind strength will increase to strong shifting to the north to northwest.  Clearing will begin tonight from the west with temperatures in the upper 30s to 40s across the region.  On Tuesday skies will be sunny with conditions beginning to dry out. To the north conditions will be seasonally warm with high temperatures in the mid- to upper- 50s today, but cloudy skies and the chance of precipitation exists.  Winds will be moderate from the south to southwest switching to the northwest overnight.  Skies will begin to clear late tonight and into tomorrow with overnight low temperatures in the 30s and tomorrows highs only reaching the mid 50s.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the northeast then the lowest elevation winds dive towards the south as the upper elevation trajectories continue at high speed towards the northeast. Characteristics show some elevational lift downwind indicating buoyant conditions and characteristics for downwind travel.  However, conditions at the source site will be cool today with high humidity and the chance of showers across the region.  Overnight temperatures approaching freezing may result in a wintery mix of snow and rain.  Tomorrow conditions will begin to improve with warmer temperatures and clearing skies.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today*** unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  Cool temperatures, cloudy conditions and the threat of precipitation today and tomorrow  at the pollen source sites result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  The trajectories do show characteristics that are conducive to entrainment and travel of pollen away from the source, but with a lack of pollen to entrain there is a low threat to any downwind communities.  Conditions should improve tomorrow with warmer temperatures and clearing skies. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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