The
Mountain
Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
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Low/ Low |
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Moderate/ Severe |
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Moderate/ Severe |
Date Issued:
Mountain Cedar Location(s):
Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 31 and Wednesday January 01 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be improving today as the low pressure moves to the east and high pressure builds to the west. Temperatures will be rising and and sunny conditions will prevail today across the region. In Texas, high temperatures will be in the mid-50s to low 60s from north to south, with dry conditions to the west and a little more humid towards the east. Winds will be from the west to northwest across the region moderate to strong at times in northern Texas today, but diminishing overnight. Low temperatures will be in the mid 30s to low 40s. To the north, partly cloudy conditions this morning will begin to break up and warmer conditions will prevail. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s today with an overall drying as humidity levels begin to drop. Winds will be from the north to northeast at moderate levels. Wednesday: New Years day will bring similar conditions with overall temperatures rising 5 to 10 degrees across the region. The southern Edwards Plateau should reach close to 70 degrees today. Winds will remain from the north to northwest with strong conditions in western Texas. A similar rise in temperatures will also occur in Oklahoma. Winds will be moderate to light predominantly from the north. Conditions will continue to dry, with the humidity below 50%.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the south and southeast on cooler air flowing from the northwest behind the cold front that came through yesterday. The trajectory characteristics show the influence of this northern incursion with the heavier cooler air remaining near the ground surface throughout the region. However, warming temperatures and lowering humidity will be the rule across the Edwards Plateau today. The low pressure to the east will draw any entrained pollen towards the southeast today. Wednesday: Warming conditions will continue with the region drying out and sunny skies providing a nice start to the new year. High temperatures will warm by 5 to 10 degrees. The wind direction will remain from the west to northwest resulting in the trajectories flowing towards the east to southeast.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today ***favorable
conditions for pollen release today*** Severe Threat tomorrow *** favorable
conditions for pollen release Clear
skies, with warming temperatures, moderate to strong winds and low humidity will prevail across the region today
making for favorable
conditions for pollen release within the trees.
Conditions will
continue to improve tomorrow with warm sunny dry conditions across the
region. Thus
favorable
conditions for pollen release will again be forecast.
The height of the pollination season is upon us and therefore the chance
of significant amounts of pollen in the atmosphere is good. The trajectories for both days show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and
travel with sinking atmospheric conditions. However, with the warm dry conditions significant amounts should be in the winds. Therefore a
severe threat exists today. Conditions continue
to improve tomorrow and thus favorable conditions for pollen release results in a severe threat for tomorrow as well. With the northwest winds
communities southeast of the Edwards Plateau (Austin,
New Brunfels, San Antonio, Corpus Christi)
will be affected both days.
Trajectory Start (s)
(shown by *
on map):
Junction, TX
Prepared by: Peter
K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience,
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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