The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 31 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 31 and Wednesday January 01 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be improving today as the low pressure moves to the east and high pressure builds to the west.  Temperatures will be rising and and sunny conditions will prevail today across the region.  In Texas, high temperatures will be in the mid-50s to low 60s from north to south, with dry conditions to the west and a little more humid towards the east.  Winds will be from the west to northwest across the region moderate to strong at times in northern Texas today, but diminishing overnight.  Low temperatures will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.  To the north, partly cloudy conditions this morning will begin to break up and warmer conditions will prevail.  High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s today with an overall drying as humidity levels begin to drop.  Winds will be from the north to northeast at moderate levels.  Wednesday:  New Years day will bring similar conditions with overall temperatures rising 5 to 10 degrees across the region.  The southern Edwards Plateau should reach close to 70 degrees today.  Winds will remain from the north to northwest with strong conditions in western Texas. A similar rise in temperatures will also occur in Oklahoma.  Winds will be moderate to light predominantly from the north.  Conditions will continue to dry, with the humidity below 50%.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south over Arkansas today and shift towards the west traveling down the Oklahoma/Arkansas border tomorrow.  As with the trajectories from southern Oklahoma, todays characteristics show cold sinking atmospheric conditions with little buoyancy as it heads southward. These improve tomorrow with the trajectories showing increasing height downind.  Conditions will be cold at the source area with partly cloudy conditions and the high temperatures only making it into the low 40s.  Conditions will begin to improve tomorrow with high temperatures just making it into the 50s.  Conditions will be drying both days with moderate winds from the north to northeast.  

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today*** unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  ***Moderate Threat tomorrow*** mixed conditions for pollen release tomorrow.  Cold temperatures and partly cloudy conditions result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today, whereas tomorrow with sunny skies and warming conditions some release may occur.  Therefore mixed conditions for pollen release will occur tomorrow. Todays trajectories show conditions that are not conducive to entrainment and travel of pollen away from the source, and with the overall poor weather conditions indicates little chance of release at the source areas.  Therefore there is a low threat for downwind travel today.  Improving conditions tomorrow may result in some release and the trajectory characteristics look good.  Therefore if conditions are right there may be a moderate threat tomorrow.  If so the winds should take the entrained pollen towards the south along the Oklahoma/ Arkansas border area.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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