The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 31 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 31 and Wednesday January 01 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be improving today as the low pressure moves to the east and high pressure builds to the west.  Temperatures will be rising and and sunny conditions will prevail today across the region.  In Texas, high temperatures will be in the mid-50s to low 60s from north to south, with dry conditions to the west and a little more humid towards the east.  Winds will be from the west to northwest across the region moderate to strong at times in northern Texas today, but diminishing overnight.  Low temperatures will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.  To the north, partly cloudy conditions this morning will begin to break up and warmer conditions will prevail.  High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s today with an overall drying as humidity levels begin to drop.  Winds will be from the north to northeast at moderate levels.  Wednesday:  New Years day will bring similar conditions with overall temperatures rising 5 to 10 degrees across the region.  The southern Edwards Plateau should reach close to 70 degrees today.  Winds will remain from the north to northwest with strong conditions in western Texas. A similar rise in temperatures will also occur in Oklahoma.  Winds will be moderate to light predominantly from the north.  Conditions will continue to dry, with the humidity below 50%..

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move southeast into Texas then is drawn into the cold front to the east over northern Louisiana.  The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  The atmosphere has little buoyancy and the trajectories travel near the ground surface along their pathway.  However, sunny skies with warming conditions will occur today with low humidity and breezy conditions should provide conditions ripe for pollen release at the source site.  Wednesday will see improving conditions with sunny skies and warmer temperatures.  The, high temperatures will approach 60 degrees with local conditions being dry with moderate winds from the west, therefore pollen release is likely.  The air mass trajectories continue to show a easterly coarse improving characteristics for entrainment and travel.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today *** Favorable conditions for pollen release, ***Moderate Threat Tomorrow***Favorable conditions for pollen release. Warming conditions today and tomorrow with sunny skies and low humidity will result in favorable conditions for release today and Tomorrow.  High temperatures at the source site will be in the 50s to low 60s and into the mid 30s.  The trajectories today flow south under the influence of the cold heavy atmospheric conditions at ground level leaving only a moderate threat for entrainment and travel of material from the source areas.  However with the improving conditions for pollen release downwind incursions locally may be expected.  This improves on Wednesday as the trajectories show more buoyancy to the atmosphere, therefore communities to the east of the Arbuckle Mountains may expect some pollen in the atmosphere. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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