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The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low Wed/Mod Thursday

Tulsa

Low Wed/ Low to Mod Thursday

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Jan 14 and 15. TX/OK: Mild temperatures continue across the region with high temperatures in the 60s today and upper 50s to low 60s tomorrow. Wednesday morning, light winds and low level moisture combined to cause dense fog across much of the area. In Oklahoma, the fog will gradually burn off and low clouds will break up leaving partly cloudy conditions as a weak cold front moves into Oklahoma bringing drier air and a shift in winds from the northwest. The next system will move into the area on Thursday spreading rain through most of the state by late Thursday and continuing through the weekend. In Texas, moisture from the tropical Pacific will move northward with an upper level low pressure system bringing a good chance of much needed rain moving into south central and west central Texas. Additional moisture moving into the area will see chances of rain continuing through the weekend.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over eastern Texas then turn around back into Oklahoma. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. At the source dense fog this morning with mild temperatures. After the fog clears, skies will be partly cloudy Wednesday. Thursday will be mostly cloudy with rain chances increasing in the late afternoon. laterprevail across the region but low temperatures and strong gusty winds will occur at the source site today with below freezing conditions expected overnight.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today/ Moderate Thursday *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Dense fog and high humidity decrease the chances of pollen release today although clearing skies in the afternoon may allow for some drying and moderate release. However, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travell. Conditions tomorrow will be mostly favorable for pollen release in the morning and early afternoon, but decrease as rain moves into the area.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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