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The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low to Moderate

San Antonio

Low to Moderate

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Friday to Sunday, Jan 16 to 18. TX/OK: Rain possible throughout the region for the next couple of days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely on Friday. Friday night and Saturday will see a heavier band of rain move across Texas and Oklahoma. Temperatures will be mild with highs in the low 50s in Oklahoma and 60s in Texas. Lows tonight will drop very light with the heavy cloud cover. Mild temperatures will continue on Saturday, but a cold front will move across the area late Saturday afternoon and evening bringing strong wind from the north, northwest and colder temperatures for Sunday. Rain should move out of the area by late Saturday night or Sunday morning. again most areas. Highs on Sunday will be in the 40s in Oklahoma and 50s in Texas.


 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move north this afternoon then circle around and turn back to the south. The trajectory characteristics are not optimum pollen entrainment and travel. At the source, temperatures are mild, in the mid-60s, and winds are from the south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. On Sunday temperatures will be cooler with highs only in the mid 50s and strong northerly winds. Trajectories this weekend move to the east, southeast on Saturday and south, southeast on Sunday.


OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat *** Mostly unfavorable conditions for pollen release Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are mild so there is a slight chance of some pollen release during dry periods on Friday, especially along the western areas of the Edwards Plateau. On Saturday scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region limiting pollen release and dispersal. Conditions improve on Sunday as rain moves out of the area. If some limited pollen release does occur the communities along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau towards the Gulf of Mexico are at heightened risk. 


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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