The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 2 Jan 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, Jan 2-4, 2004. TX/OK: Very warm day on Friday with temperatures in the 70s throughout the region. Some areas will see record high temperuatures. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with high winds in Oklahoma and moderate winds in Texas. Gulf moisture will keep the humidity high throughout the region with a chance of thuderstorms. On Saturday a cold front will begin to slowly move into the area from the northwest. Temperatures in Oklahoma will begin dropping in the afternoon as winds shift to the west and then north. Skies will be mostly cloudy with continuing chance of rain and thuderstorms. Highs on Saturday should be in the 60s in Oklahoma but will still be in the 70s in Texas with strong southerly winds. Sunday temperatures will be in the 40s to low 50s in Oklahoma with partly cloudy skies and moderately strong north to northwest winds. The cold front will move into Texas on Sunday with winds shifting to the west and then north, northwest late on Sunday. High temperatures will be in the 70s in the south of Texas ahead of the front but highs will be about 10 degrees lower after the front passes.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the northeast on strong southwest winds. The Skies will partly cloudy across the region with mild temperatures and highs in the 70s. Conditions at the source are warm but humidities are running high this morning. Mild conditions expected to continue overnight. Trajectories tomorrow continue to show movement to the northeast as morning winds will continue to be from the southwest. Mild temperatures will continue tomorrow but skies will be cloudy with a slight chance of rain late Saturday. Winds will change directions on Saturday as the cold front pushes through the state. Trajectories on Sunday move to the south on moderate northerly winds but show poor conditions for entrainment and travel.

 

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat Friday and Saturday/ Low to Moderate threat on Sunday *** Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release on Friday. Warm temperatures, gusty winds, and partly cloudy skies are good conditions for pollen release, but humidity is high in the region. Since the trees are near their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected even with the high humidity. Tomorrow temperatures will continue mild but will be a bit cooler than Friday. Conditions will continue mostly favorable for pollen release. Atmospheric conditions for pollen entrainment and travel will deteriorate as the colder heavy air moves across the region at ground level on Saturday p.m. and Sunday. Any pollen release on Sunday will remain local. Lower threat of pollen exposure at downwind sites.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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