The
Mountain
Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Moderate |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 21 January 2004
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Jan 21-22.
TX/OK: Near normal temperatures in the region for the next few days. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy
with highs today near 50 in Oklahoma and in the 50s in Texas. Lows tonight will be near freezing in Oklahoma and
the mid 40s in Texas. Highs tomorrow will be just a few degrees cooler but still seasonable. Winds will be light
to moderate and variable on Wednesday and from the north, northeast on Thursday. Slight chance of rain in central
Texas on Thursday.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories on Wednesday move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the east, southeast over southwest Arkansas. The trajectories show less than ideal characteristics for entrainment and travel. At the source temperatures are low this morning but should warm to 50 degrees this afternoon. Lows tonight will be near freezing again with a similiar warm-up tomorrow afternoon. Trajectories tomorrow will move south into north Texas and than circle back around to the northeast.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, but cool morning temperatures will reduce the chance of significant pollen release making for moderate risk. Less than ideal trajectory characteristics suggest that much of the pollen will remain local so the risk for downwind populations is low from the trees in the Arbuckles. The possibility exists that some pollen from Texas (the air mass that moved north from Texas yesterday) may reach central Oklahoma today.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released
Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time
of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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