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The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Moderate

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Jan 21-22. TX/OK: Near normal temperatures in the region for the next few days. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with highs today near 50 in Oklahoma and in the 50s in Texas. Lows tonight will be near freezing in Oklahoma and the mid 40s in Texas. Highs tomorrow will be just a few degrees cooler but still seasonable. Winds will be light to moderate and variable on Wednesday and from the north, northeast on Thursday. Slight chance of rain in central Texas on Thursday.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories on Wednesday move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the east, southeast over southwest Arkansas. The trajectories show less than ideal characteristics for entrainment and travel. At the source temperatures are low this morning but should warm to 50 degrees this afternoon. Lows tonight will be near freezing again with a similiar warm-up tomorrow afternoon. Trajectories tomorrow will move south into north Texas and than circle back around to the northeast.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, but cool morning temperatures will reduce the chance of significant pollen release making for moderate risk. Less than ideal trajectory characteristics suggest that much of the pollen will remain local so the risk for downwind populations is low from the trees in the Arbuckles. The possibility exists that some pollen from Texas (the air mass that moved north from Texas yesterday) may reach central Oklahoma today.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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