The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 26 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Jan 26-27. TX/OK: A cold front moves across the region producing markedly cooler temperatures for the next few days. Monday high temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the 30s and in the 50s and 60s in Texas with strong northwest winds through the area. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy in Texas, but cloudy skies and precipitation are likely in Oklahoma. Snow likely in northern Oklahoma and rain or rain/snow mix in southern Oklahoma. Lows Monday night will be in the teens in Oklahoma and the 20s and low 30s in Texas. Tuesday will have clear to partly cloudy skies throughout the region with variable winds. Highs will be in the 30s in Oklahoma and in the 50s in Texas.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the southeast over northeast Texas and Louisiana on strong northwesterly winds. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into the area.  Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered out.  Low temperatures, strong gusty winds, and a chance of precipitaion will occur at the source site today with below freezing conditions expected overnight. Trajectories tomorrow will start moving to the south but then turn back to the northeast as the cold front moves east and southerly winds return.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Cold, cloudy conditions will occur today and reduce the chance of any significant pollen release. In addition, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel with cold heavy air moving across the region at ground level. Cold temperatures tonight and a bit of warming is expected tomorrow but temperatures will remain below the favorable range. With cold, dry conditions tomorrow little release is expected.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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