The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 26 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Jan 26-27. TX/OK: A cold front moves across the region producing markedly cooler temperatures for the next few days. Monday high temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the 30s and in the 50s and 60s in Texas with strong northwest winds through the area. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy in Texas, but cloudy skies and precipitation are likely in Oklahoma. Snow likely in northern Oklahoma and rain or rain/snow mix in southern Oklahoma. Lows Monday night will be in the teens in Oklahoma and the 20s and low 30s in Texas. Tuesday will have clear to partly cloudy skies throughout the region with variable winds. Highs will be in the 30s in Oklahoma and in the 50s in Texas.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move to the southeast today and begin to circle around back to the north tomorrow.  The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into the area.  Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered out. Temperatures at the source populations today will be in the 50s and 60s with strong gusty winds. Below freezing conditions are expected overnight. Trajectories tomorrow will shift back to northerly movement as the southerly winds return.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Good conditions for pollen release today and mixed conditions on Tuesday. Sunny skies with dry windy conditions across the region result in good conditions for pollen release today.  However, the trajectory characteristics do not conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. Across the region the cold air will move the atmosphere along the ground, which usually results in the filtration of entrained particles as they travel. As a result pollen is likely to remain local. Low overnight temperatures are likely to slow release tomorrow. As the temperatures warm tomorrow and southerly winds return, pollen entrainment and travel is likely.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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