The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday to Sunday, Jan 30 to Feb 1. TX/OK: The cold front will remain over the region on Friday. Saturday will provide a brief warm-up and then we will begin to see the cold air return on Sunday. High temperatures on Friday will be from the mid to upper 30s in Oklahoma and the mid 40s to the mid 50s in Texas. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy throughout the region with light to moderate winds. Lows Friday night will be in the 20s in Oklahoma and the 30s in Texas. Temperatures on Saturday will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer and winds will be from the south through the region. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy on Saturday. Fog is likely Saturday morning in Central Texas. Sunday will be cooler in Oklahoma with daytime highs from the mid 30s to mid 40s with rain likely. This may change to freezing rain or snow Sunday night. In Texas, highs on Sunday will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the north, northeast on Friday. Conditions at the source are cold this morning and will just reach the acceptable range for pollen release this afternoon. Below freezing conditions expected overnight with a warm-up Saturday under moderate to brisk southerly winds. Trajectories on Saturday show movement to the north. Conditions on Sunday will deteriorate with rain and possible wintry precipitation possible in the area.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Friday, Moderate to High on Saturday, Low on Sunday *** Mixed conditions for pollen release in the Arbuckles Friday, favorable Saturday, and mostly unfavorable conditions on Sunday. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, but temperatures just getting into the low 40s will reduce the chance of any significant pollen release. However, trajectories from Texas also show movement to the north and may bring more pollen to the Oklahoma area. Cold temperatures tonight and a bit of warming tomorrow, 10 to 15 degrees is expected, resulting in more pollen release from both Oklahoma and Texas populations. It should be noted that the mountain cedar pollen season in winding down so the amount of pollen available for dispersal may be limited.  

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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