The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Friday to Sunday, Jan 30 to Feb 1. TX/OK: The cold front remains in place over the region on Friday. Saturday will provide a brief warm-up and then we will begin to see the cold air return on Sunday. High temperatures on Friday will be from the mid to upper 30s in Oklahoma and the mid 40s to the mid 50s in Texas. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy throughout the region with light to moderate variable winds. Lows Friday night will be in the 20s in Oklahoma and the 30s in Texas. Temperatures on Saturday will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer and winds will be from the south through the region. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy on Saturday. Fog is likely Saturday morning in Central Texas.Sunday will be cooler in Oklahoma with daytime highs from the mid 30s to mid 40s with rain likely. This may change to freezing rain or snow Sunday night. In Texas, highs on Sunday will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Texas move to the southwest this afternoon and then circle around to the northeast this evening, whereas those from the western side of the Edwards Plateau show movement to the northeast. Conditions at the sources will be cool but dry with sunny clear skies.  The trees are nearing the end of the pollen release season therefore less pollen may be available for release. Trajectories on Saturday move to the north, northeast and those on Sunday to the east although the trajectories on Sunday do not show optimum characteristics for entrainment and travel. Temperatures will be mild through the weekend with highs in the 50s and low 60s.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release through the weekend. It should be noted that the mountain cedar pollen season in winding down so the amount of pollen available for dispersal may be limited. Trajectories currently available for Sunday do not show good characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel so pollen may remain local.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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