The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Jan 5 and 6. TX/OK: A cold air mass will remain in place over the region for the next couple of days. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Daytime highs in Oklahoma will be in the 30s with night-time lows in the teens to 20s. In Texas highs will range from the 40s to 50s with night-time lows in the 30s. Winds will be from the north on Monday at 10-15 mph gradually shifting to the northeast and then easterly on Tuesday afternoon and finally to the southeast in most areas by Wednesday morning.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over central  Texas on strong northerly winds. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into the area. Cold sinking atmospheric conditions today results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered. Trajectories turn around over west Texas on Tuesday and reenter Oklahoma on Wednesday morning. Partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region but low temperatures and strong gusty winds will occur at the source site today with below freezing conditions expected overnight. Tuesday's trajectories initially head southwest but then turn around to the north, northeast as the wind shift occurs late on Tuesday into Wednesday

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Cold temperatures will reduce the chance of any significant pollen release making for unfavorable conditions. Cold temperatures will continue tonight with little warming tomorrow. Today, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel with cold heavy air moving across the region at ground level.  With cold, dry conditions little release is expected and therefore a Low threat exists for downwind travel. Tomorrow temperatures will remain cold reducing the chances of pollen release through much of the day.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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