The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Jan 7 and 8. TX/OK: Warmer temperatures will slowly return to the region over the next few days. The high pressure system and Arctic air mass slowly moves east today. A weak low pressure trough will move into the area overnight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain in the 30s in Oklahoma this afternoon will cloudy skies and moderate to brisk southerly winds. Daytime temperatures in Texas will be in the 40s with winds from the east, shifting to the south during the day. Southerly winds during the day will add low level moisture to the region. Cloud cover throughout the region should keep temperatures from falling much tonight. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the 50s in Oklahoma and upper 50s to low 60s in Texas. Skies will be partly cloudy in the north and cloudy with a chance of rain in the south, especially in central Texas. Wind direction will shift during the day tomorrow from the west, northwest, and then north as next system moves into the area.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the north over central Oklahoma into Kansas on strong southerly winds. The trajectories will shift back to the south late on Wednesday. Cloudy skies will prevail across the region but low temperatures and strong gusty winds will occur at the source site today. Tomorrow will see warmer temperatures across the region with partly cloudy skies in Oklahoma. Trajectories move east from the source tomorrow and then shift to the south over east Texas tomorrow evening.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat Wednesday, High Risk Thursday *** Mostly unfavorable conditions for pollen release in the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds are favorable for transport, but temperatures will only reach the upper 30s this afternoon. These low temperatures will reduce the chance of any significant pollen release making for unfavorable conditions. However, since the trees are at their peak release period, some pollen release might be expected in sheltered areas where localized temperatures may be greater. In addition, strong southerly winds may bring some limited cedar pollen into Oklahoma from the Texas populations.Warming tomorrow is expected with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees warmer making for favorable conditions for pollen release. Trajectories will carry the pollen to the east and south tomorrow

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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