The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Jan 7 and 8. TX/OK: Warmer temperatures will slowly return to the region over the next few days. The high pressure system and Arctic air mass slowly moves east today. A weak low pressure trough will move into the area overnight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain in the 30s in Oklahoma this afternoon will cloudy skies and moderate to brisk southerly winds. Daytime temperatures in Texas will be in the 40s with winds from the east, shifting to the south during the day. Southerly winds will add low level moisture, and cloud cover throughout the region should keep temperatures from falling much tonight. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the 50s in Oklahoma and upper 50s to low 60s in Texas. Skies will be partly cloudy in the north and cloudy with a chance of rain in the south, especially in southeast Texas. Wind direction will shift during the day tomorrow from the west, northwest, and then north as next system moves into the area.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the north, northeast over north Texas and Oklahoma into Missouri. Cloudy skies will prevail across the region.Temperatures in the 40s with strong gusty winds will occur across the Edwards Platueau today. Since the trees are in the peak release period, some pollen release will occur even though the temperatures are marginal. Tomorrow will see warmer temperatures across the region from the upper 50s to mid 60s with cloudy skies and a chance of rain. Trajectories tomorrow move east, northeast from the source and then shift to the south tomorrow evening.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today/High Threat Tomorrow *** Mixed conditions for pollen release. Skies are cloudy with dry, windy conditions but marginal temperatures across the region result in mixed conditions for pollen release today. Since the trees are at their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected in sheltered areas where localized temperatures may be greater. The trajectory characteristics show conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind, so any pollen released today may be carried over north Texas and into Oklahoma. Warmer temperatures tomorrow should result in the High threat for communities along the southern and southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau to the south. The risk will be reduced if precipation develops in the area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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