The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, Saturday and Sunday, Jan 9-11. TX/OK: Weekend will bring dry, mild conditions with partly cloudy skies and near normal temperatures. The region is under the influence of a weak cold front that will drop temperatures a few degrees from Thursday. Skies will be partly cloudy with moderate winds on Friday. Winds will be from the north in most areas except west Texas, which will see winds from the southeast. High temperatures will be in the 40s in Oklahoma and upper 50s and 60s in Texas. Lows Friday night will be in the 20s and 30s. Saturday's high temperatures will be similar to Friday but winds will be gradually shifting to southerly. Temperatures on Sunday will be a little warmer with highs in the upper 50s in the north and mid 60s in the south. A chance of precipitation on Sunday night as the next weather system moves into the area..

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories on Friday move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over north Texas this afternoon and then curve to the southwest and back around to the north tomorrow. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered.  Sunny to partly couldy skies will prevail across the region today and low temperatures again tonight. Temperatures will be mild Saturday and the trajectories on Saturday and Sunday move to the northeast with good characteristics for entrainment and travel.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release Friday to Sunday. Sunny dry conditions will occur, but morning temperatures are low and will delay significant pollen release until the afternoon. Trajectories today do not have good characteristics for entrainment and travel so any pollen release this afternoon is likely to remain local. Tomorrows temperature conditions are similar with low morning temperatures and an afternoon warm-up again delaying pollen release. However winds will be from the south Saturday and Sunday and the trajectories are good for entrainment and travel. Downwind communities are likely to see moderate to high levels of pollen.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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