The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2004

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, Jan 9-11. TX/OK: Weekend will bring dry, mild conditions with partly cloudy skies and near normal temperatures. The region is under the influence of a weak cold front that will drop temperatures a few degrees from Thursday. Skies will be partly cloudy with moderate winds on Friday. Winds will be from the north in most areas except west Texas, which will see winds from the southeast. High temperatures will be in the 40s in Oklahoma and upper 50s and 60s in Texas. Lows Friday night will be in the 20s and 30s. Saturday's high temperatures will be similar to Friday but winds will be gradually shifting to southerly. Temperatures on Sunday will be a little warmer with highs in the upper 50s in the north and mid 60s in the south. A chance of precipitation on Sunday night as the next weather system moves into the area..

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories on Friday from eastern side of the Edwards Plateau move to the south, southwest and then curve around west largely staying in west Texas.Friday's trajectories those from the western side of the Edwards Plateau move around west Texas and finally turn northeast tomorrow. Conditions at the sources will be cold Friday morning but warming this afternoon. Trajectories on Saturday and Sunday move to the northeast over north Texas and Oklahoma and onto Missouri. Conditions at the source will be mild over the weekend although morning temperatures will be low. Trajectories on Saturday show good characteristics for entrainment and travel. On Sunday, trajectories from the eastern side of the Plateau also show good characteristics for entrainment and travel. Sunday's trajectories from west Texas encounter the next weather system and show poor characteristics for travel.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Good conditions for pollen release although low morning temperatures will delay release until the afternoon hours. Since the trees are still near their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected this weekend.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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