The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Moderate to High Wednesday/Low Thursday

Tulsa

Moderate to High Wednesday/Low Thursday

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 12 Jan 2005


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Jan 12 and 13. TX/OK: There will be active weather in Oklahoma on Wednesday. A warm front moves north this morning raising temperatures into the upper 60s across the state, but a strong Pacific upper low moves in the from northwest during the afternoon. As a result thunderstorms will develop along the boundary of these two systems.Skies cloudy throughout the area with patchy fog and drizzle and very strong southerly winds. Cold Canadian air will slide south behind the Pacific front tonight and drop Thursday's temperatures down to the low 40s. Temperatures across Texas will be in the 70s today with very strong southerly winds. Temperatures in Texas will drop to more seasonable levels on Thursday (50s and 60s) under the influence of the cold Canadian air.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move rapidly from the Arbuckle Mountains to the northeast on strong southerly winds ahead of the frontal system. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. However, patchy fog, drizzle and chance of thunderstorms may limit pollen release today. Any pollen released has the potential for traveling long distances. Thursday's trajectories move to the south as cold air drains into the area from the north  Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered.  Partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region but low temperatures will occur at the source site Thursday below optimal range for pollen release.


OUTLOOK: *** Mixed Threat *** Mxed conditions for pollen release Wednesday, unfavorable conditions Thursday. Patchy fog, drizzle, and chance of thuderstorms may limit pollen release today. However since we are near the peak of the pollen season, significant release may be expected in areas near the Arbuckles that remain dry. High treat exists for these areas. Trajectory characteristics also suggest that any pollen released has the potential for traveling long distiances. Low threat on Thursday since temperatures at the source will remain below the favorable range for pollen release. Any release that does occur will remain local since trajectory characteristics do not favor entrainment and dispersal.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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