The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2005

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Jan 12 and 13. TX/OK: There will be active weather in Oklahoma on Wednesday. A warm front moves north this morning raising temperatures into the upper 60s across the state, but a strong Pacific upper low moves in the from northwest during the afternoon. As a result thunderstorms will develop along the boundary of these two systems.Skies cloudy throughout the area with patchy fog and drizzle and very strong southerly winds. Cold Canadian air will slide south behind the Pacific front tonight and drop Thursday's temperatures down to the low 40s. Temperatures across Texas will be in the 70s today with very strong southerly winds. Temperatures in Texas will drop to more seasonable levels on Thursday (50s and 60s) under the influence of the cold Canadian air.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Edwards Plareau show the influence of the frontal systems in the area. Upper trajectories move to the northeast along strong southerly winds. Lower level trahectories begin moving to the northeast but then turn east and south as the cold air sinks in at lower levels. Conditions along the plateau will be warm and windy today permitting significant pollen release, especially since we are still near the season peak. Thursday's trajectories show air masses initially moving to the south and each of the trajectories shows characteristics associated with the cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level. Conditions at the sources will be cooler than today but dry with sunny to partly cloudy skies. The temperatures will still be favorable for pollen release Thursday but atmospheric conditions are not particularly good for pollen entrainment and transport downwind. Therefore, pollen released will remain local.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat *** Favorable conditions for pollen release. Warm temperatures and strong winds will favor release. Since the trees are near their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected. Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler with conditions less favorable for pollen transport.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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