The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 Jan 2005

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Jan 19 and 20. TX/OK: Warm temperatures return to the region for the next few days. Day time highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 50s in Oklahoma to the 60s in Texas. Highs on Thursday will be from the 60s to the low 70s. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog and low to moderate winds. Winds shifting to northerly in Oklahoma and from the southwest in Texas.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories on Wednesday move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the southeast and then turn back around to the east, northeast but large stay in Oklahoma. Trajectory characteristics are not ideal for entrainment and travel of pollen. Trajectories for Thursday show air mass movement to the east, north east. Partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures will prevail across the region.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will occur today, but Wednesday morning temperatures are low which will delay significant pollen release until the afternoon. Continued warming tomorrow, 5 to 10 degrees higher is expected. Wednesday's trajectories show  poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel so pollen released from the Arbuckles is likely to remain in southeast Oklahoma. Therefore a Low to Moderate threat exists for Tulsa and Oklahoma City. At this time Thursday's trajectories show pollen movement across Arkansas. If conditions change forecast will be updated on Thusday.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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