The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2005

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Jan 19 and 20. TX/OK: Warm temperatures return to the region for the next few days. Day time highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 50s in Oklahoma to the 60s in Texas. Highs on Thursday will be from the 60s to the low 70s. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog and low to moderate winds. Winds shifting to northerly in Oklahoma and from the southwest in Texas.

Trajectory weather: On Wednesday air mass trajectories from eastern area of the Edwards Plateau move to the east towards Louisiana, whereas those from the western side of the Edwards Plateau move to the east and then turn north largely staying in Texas. Each of the trajectories shows characteristics that are less than perfect for entrainment and travel of pollen. Conditions at the sources will be warm today wtih partly cloudy skies; however, Wednesday morning shows some areas of patchy fog and drizzle. Trajectories for Thursday from the eastern side of the Plateau show movement to the east, northeast. Those from the western side of the Plateau mainly stay in north central Texas. Conditions remain warm and dry across the Plateau on Thursday.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Mixed to good conditions for pollen release. Warm temperatures throughout the region with light winds, although the trajectory characteristics do not show perfect atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. In addition, there are some areas of drizzle on Wednesday morning. Areas that remain dry will likely see significant pollen release that will remain near the source areas. Favorable conditions for pollen release on Thursday.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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