The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2005

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Jan 5 and 6. TX/OK: A frontal system stretches across Oklahoma with day time highs in the upper 20s and 30s on Wednesday with moderate northwest winds. Rain, freezing rain, and sleet across the state on Wednesday. Precipitation should move out of the area later today. Nightime lows in the single digits and teens. On Thursday day time highs will be in the upper 20s and low 30s with partly cloudy skies and northerly winds.. The frontal system will move into Texas today dropping temperatures from the 60s and 70s on Wednesday to the 40s on Thursday. Rain and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday and partly to mostly cloudy skies on Thursday. Winds variable on Wednesday and from the north on Thursday.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Texas are variable with the cold front moving into the area. The warm moist air aloft shows movement to the northeast while the cold air moves in closer to the ground carrying the air mass to the south. From the western side of the Edwards Plateau the trajectories move to the south today and show characteristics associated with the cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level.  Conditions at the sources will be deteriorating today. The trees are nearing the peak of the pollen release season therefore some pollen may be released today but the cold temperatures should discourage it tomorrow. In addition atmospheric conditions are not particularly good for pollen entrainment and transport downwind.

OUTLOOK: ***Mixed conditions for pollen release today/Low Threat tomorrow *** The likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the region results in mixed conditions for pollen release in Texas. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected in areas that remain dry. As a result High Threat continues in areas that remain dry with a Low to Moderate Threat in areas with rain. Low threat tomorrow. Temperatures tomorrow will be unfavorable for pollen release after the frontal system passes through the area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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