The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2005

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Fri, Sat, Sun, Jan 7 to 9. TX/OK: The cold front gradually moves out of the region this afternoon with much warmer conditions for the weekend. Cloudy skies and light rain in Oklahoma and north Texas on Friday with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Areas of rain in south Texas should clear by mid-day on Friday leaving partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 50s and 60s. On Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will warm to the upper 50s and 60s in Oklahoma and the 60s and 70s in Texas. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with chances of rain returning on Sunday. Patchy fog possible this weekend. Winds will be mainly from the south and increasing on Sunday.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau initially show little movement Friday afternoon then move rapidly to the northeast. On the western side of the Plateau, temperatures will be in the 60s with clear skies and low to moderate winds. The trees are nearing the peak of the pollen release season therefore significant amounts pollen may be released. On the eastern side of the Plateau, temperatures will be cooler with areas of light rain and drizzle. Trajectories on Saturday and Sunday show movement to the north, northeast. Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s across the Plateau on Saturday and Sunday. Skies will be partly cloudy Saturday with increasing clouds on Sunday and scattered showers.

OUTLOOK: *** Mixed conditions for pollen release today/High threat this weekend *** Favorable conditions for pollen release on the western side of the Plateau but mixed conditions on the eastern side due to the likelihood of scattered areas drizzle and light rain. Since the trees are near their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected. As a result High Threat continues in areas that remain dry with Moderate Threat in areas with some rain. High threat tomorrow and Sunday although scattered showers are possible on Sunday.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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