The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
Severe |
San Antonio |
Low |
Date Issued: 31 December 2005
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Sat
and Sun, Dec 31 and Jan 01. TX/OK: The
Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to be warm and dry today and tomorrow. A low pressure system will begin to move
off of the central Rockies on Sunday bringing increasing cloudiness to the north, but Texas will remain relatively
clear or with high clouds. Winds will remain quite strong over the weekend and shift from the predominant southerly
direction today to a more westerly flow on Sunday. Wind speeds will continue to be strong especially towards the
north. Humidity will remain low during the day with values in the 10-20% range in west rising towards the east
and north, but remaining near 40%. However overnight high humidity along the south and southeastern edge of the
Edwards Plateau may result in some precipitation, but only minor amounts at best. Similarly northeastern Oklahoma
shows a heightened chance of precipitation (20%) overnight. Temperatures throughout the region will remain warm
with highs in Oklahoma reaching the 70s and Texas showing highs in the upper 70s today and tomorrow. Nighttime
temperatures will remain above average for the time of year.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards
Plateau Texas move to the east today backed by strong westerlies. The trajectories to the west are associated with
a sinking atmospheric conditions that are poor for entrainment and travel., whreas to the east atmospheric conditions
appear to be rising. Warm temperatures, low relative humidity and strong winds throughout the Edwards Plateau will
be good for pollen dispersal. High nighttime humidity, especially to the east, will aid the ripening of the cones
making pollen release potential even greater.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat to the east*** Temperatures,
humidity are optimal for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau, the severe drought throughout the region has delayed
the pollen season but high atmospheric counts in Austin indicate that cones are ripening and dispersing their pollen
load. Strong west to east winds will bring high concentrations to the east of the Edwards Plateau, but should exclude
populations further north from significant pollen concentrations.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SAN ANGELO
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast
gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along
the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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