The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 Jan 06

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Mon. and Tue., Jan 02 and Jan 03. TX/OK: The Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to be warm and dry today and tomorrow with high pressure building to the south and west. There is no foreseeable chance of precipitation throughout the region. A strong low pressure system will continue to move just south of the Great Lakes region continuing to pull the trajectories to the north and northeast. Winds start today from the west shifting towards a more south to north direction overnight and for tomorrow. This low pressure will continue to fuel strong winds across the region further complicating current efforts to control wild fires. Today’s temperatures will be cooler with highs in the low 60s across Oklahoma and the upper 60s to low 70s in Texas. Humidity will remain low during the day with values in the 10-20% range in west rising towards the east and north, but remaining below 40% region wide. Tomorrow, temperatures throughout the region will become warmer with highs in Oklahoma reaching the 70s and Texas showing highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Nighttime temperatures will remain above average for this time of year, in the upper 30s to low 40s in the north and low to mid 40s to the south.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the southeast over northeastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas, eventually turning north at the lowest elevations. The trajectories are associated with sinking atmospheric conditions that are characteristically poor for pollen entrainment and travel. Warm daytime temperatures, clear skies and low relative humidity are excellent conditions for pollen release.


OUTLOOK: *** Low threat *** Conditions are very good for pollen release today, especially with high relative humidity at night. However, the severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season therefore the cones are only beginning to open. At this time we do not have confirmation that this particular population has started to pollinate, but have seen increased levels of atmospheric pollen to the south along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Because pollination is only beginning and atmospheric conditions are not good for dispersal, concentrations should only pose a low threat to downwind communities and not threaten major urban centers.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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