The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2006

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Mon. and Tue., Jan 02 and Jan 03. TX/OK: The Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to be warm and dry today and tomorrow with high pressure building to the south and west. There is no foreseeable chance of precipitation throughout the region. A strong low pressure system will continue to move just south of the Great Lakes region continuing to pull the trajectories to the north and northeast. Winds start today from the west shifting towards a more south to north direction overnight and for tomorrow. This low pressure will continue to fuel strong winds across the region further complicating current efforts to control wild fires. Today’s temperatures will be cooler with highs in the low 60s across Oklahoma and the upper 60s to low 70s in Texas. Humidity will remain low during the day with values in the 10-20% range in west rising towards the east and north, but remaining below 40% region wide. Tomorrow, temperatures throughout the region will become warmer with highs in Oklahoma reaching the 70s and Texas showing highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Nighttime temperatures will remain above average for this time of year, in the upper 30s to low 40s in the north and low to mid 40s to the south.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the northeast today backed by strong westerly winds. The trajectories to the west are associated with a sinking atmospheric conditions that are poor for entrainment and travel., whereas to the east atmospheric conditions appear to be rising. Warm temperatures, low relative humidity and strong winds throughout the Edwards Plateau will be good for pollen dispersal. High nighttime humidity, especially to the east, will aid the ripening of the cones making pollen release potential even greater. Movement of pollen entrained should be reduced towards the west because of the poorer atmospheric conditions, whereas those towards the east may provide greater long-distance dispersal potential.


OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat to the east, Moderate threat to the west*** Temperatures, humidity are optimal for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau, the severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season but high atmospheric counts in Austin indicate that cones are ripening and dispersing their pollen load. Strong winds will bring high concentrations from the east of the Edwards Plateau towards northeastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. The Dallas/Fort Worth region may be affected, but near ground level wind movement should filter out much of the pollen. The Austin area, which borders the main Juniperus ashei pollen may see significant amounts.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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