The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 3 Jan 06


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Tue. and Wed., Jan 03 and Jan 04. TX/OK: The Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to be warm and dry today and tomorrow with high pressure building to the west as a large area of low pressure builds in the upper Great Plains. There is no foreseeable chance of precipitation throughout the region, warm temperatures are expected today with cooler conditions tomorrow as the low pressure dry line moves across the area. The low pressure system will continue to move to the east pulling the upper winds from the northern trajectories to the northeast. In Texas winds will start towards a northerly direction, but switch dramatically during the night towards the south. A dry line from the developing low pressure will continue to fuel strong winds throughout the region. High winds and continued low humidity (10 to 20% in most areas) will exacerbate the current efforts to control wild fires especially in western Oklahoma. Highs in the mid 70s today across Oklahoma will cool to the mid to low 60s tomorrow. In Texas highs today will reach into the 80s then cool to the mid to low 70s tomorrow. Humidity will remain low during the day with values in the 10-20% range in west rising towards the east and north, but remaining well below 40% region wide. Nighttime temperatures will remain above average for this time of year, in the low to mid 40s in the north and upper 40s to low 50s to the south.


Trajectory weather:
The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the northeast over northeastern Oklahoma and the Tulsa region before turning southward at the lowest elevation, but continuing with the eastward movement of the low pressure at the upper elevations . The trajectories are associated with sinking atmospheric conditions that are characteristically poor for pollen entrainment and travel. However, warm daytime temperatures, clear skies and low relative humidity are excellent conditions for pollen release.


OUTLOOK: ***
Moderate threat ***
Conditions are very good for pollen release today, especially with the high shift in relative humidity between nighttime and low daytime levels. However, the severe drought throughout the region may be preventing full maturation of the cones. At this time we do not have confirmation that this particular population has started to pollinate, but have seen increased levels of atmospheric pollen to the south along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Atmospheric conditions are poor for entrainment and travel as they are characterized by sinking air as the cold front moves across the state. Therefore there is a moderate threat to the Tulsa region, but pollen entrained and moving so close to the ground is more susceptible to impaction on other vegetation resulting in lower concentrations.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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