The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Severe |
Austin |
Severe |
San Antonio |
Low |
Date Issued: 3 January 2006
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Tue.
and Wed., Jan 03 and Jan 04. TX/OK: The
Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to be warm and dry today and tomorrow with high pressure building to the west
as a large area of low pressure builds in the upper Great Plains. There is no foreseeable chance of precipitation
throughout the region, warm temperatures are expected today with cooler conditions tomorrow as the low pressure
dry line moves across the area. The low pressure system will continue to move to the east pulling the upper winds
from the northern trajectories to the northeast. In Texas winds will start towards a northerly direction, but switch
dramatically during the night towards the south. A dry line from the developing low pressure will continue to fuel
strong winds throughout the region. High winds and continued low humidity (10 to 20% in most areas) will exacerbate
the current efforts to control wild fires especially in western Oklahoma. Highs in the mid 70s today across Oklahoma
will cool to the mid to low 60s tomorrow. In Texas highs today will reach into the 80s then cool to the mid to
low 70s tomorrow. Humidity will remain low during the day with values in the 10-20% range in west rising towards
the east and north, but remaining well below 40% region wide. Nighttime temperatures will remain above average
for this time of year, in the low to mid 40s in the north and upper 40s to low 50s to the south.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards
Plateau Texas move to the north to northeast today backed by strong winds ahead of a cold front moving in from
the northwest. The trajectories to the west are associated with a sinking atmospheric conditions that are poor
for entrainment and travel., whereas to the east atmospheric conditions appear to be rising. Temperatures will
be very warm with many locations reaching into the 80s. Low relative humidity and strong winds throughout the Edwards
Plateau will be good for pollen dispersal. High nighttime humidity, especially to the east, will aid the ripening
of the cones making pollen release potential even greater. Very high pollen counts were recorded yesterday in Austin
suggesting that pollination is in full swing Movement of entrained pollen entrained should be reduced towards the
west because of the poorer atmospheric conditions, whereas those towards the east may provide greater long-distance
dispersal potential.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe
to Moderate threat*** Temperatures and
humidity are optimal for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau, the severe drought throughout the region has delayed
the pollen season but very high atmospheric counts in Austin indicate that cones are ripening and dispersing their
pollen load. Strong winds will bring severe concentrations from the east of the Edwards Plateau towards the Dallas/Fort
Worth region and southeastern most Oklahoma. Greater, near ground level wind movement on the eastern Edwards Plateau
should filter out much of the pollen. The Austin area extending north towards Waco, which borders the main Juniperus ashei population,
will see severe pollen concentrations within the atmosphere. Overnight as the winds switch from a northerly to
southern direction, heightened levels of pollen should start to occur within the San Antonio area as well as the
region south of the Edwards Plateau. Exposure Risk will most likely rise from todays low conditions towards Moderate
to Severe tomorrow.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SAN ANGELO
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast
gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along
the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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