The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Severe

Austin

Severe

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 3 January 2006


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Tue. and Wed., Jan 03 and Jan 04. TX/OK: The Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to be warm and dry today and tomorrow with high pressure building to the west as a large area of low pressure builds in the upper Great Plains. There is no foreseeable chance of precipitation throughout the region, warm temperatures are expected today with cooler conditions tomorrow as the low pressure dry line moves across the area. The low pressure system will continue to move to the east pulling the upper winds from the northern trajectories to the northeast. In Texas winds will start towards a northerly direction, but switch dramatically during the night towards the south. A dry line from the developing low pressure will continue to fuel strong winds throughout the region. High winds and continued low humidity (10 to 20% in most areas) will exacerbate the current efforts to control wild fires especially in western Oklahoma. Highs in the mid 70s today across Oklahoma will cool to the mid to low 60s tomorrow. In Texas highs today will reach into the 80s then cool to the mid to low 70s tomorrow. Humidity will remain low during the day with values in the 10-20% range in west rising towards the east and north, but remaining well below 40% region wide. Nighttime temperatures will remain above average for this time of year, in the low to mid 40s in the north and upper 40s to low 50s to the south.

Trajectory weather:
The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the north to northeast today backed by strong winds ahead of a cold front moving in from the northwest. The trajectories to the west are associated with a sinking atmospheric conditions that are poor for entrainment and travel., whereas to the east atmospheric conditions appear to be rising. Temperatures will be very warm with many locations reaching into the 80s. Low relative humidity and strong winds throughout the Edwards Plateau will be good for pollen dispersal. High nighttime humidity, especially to the east, will aid the ripening of the cones making pollen release potential even greater. Very high pollen counts were recorded yesterday in Austin suggesting that pollination is in full swing Movement of entrained pollen entrained should be reduced towards the west because of the poorer atmospheric conditions, whereas those towards the east may provide greater long-distance dispersal potential.


OUTLOOK: ***
Severe to Moderate threat***
Temperatures and humidity are optimal for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau, the severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season but very high atmospheric counts in Austin indicate that cones are ripening and dispersing their pollen load. Strong winds will bring severe concentrations from the east of the Edwards Plateau towards the Dallas/Fort Worth region and southeastern most Oklahoma. Greater, near ground level wind movement on the eastern Edwards Plateau should filter out much of the pollen. The Austin area extending north towards Waco, which borders the main Juniperus ashei population, will see severe pollen concentrations within the atmosphere. Overnight as the winds switch from a northerly to southern direction, heightened levels of pollen should start to occur within the San Antonio area as well as the region south of the Edwards Plateau. Exposure Risk will most likely rise from todays low conditions towards Moderate to Severe tomorrow.



Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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