The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 Jan 06

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wed. and Thurs., Jan 04 and Jan 05. TX/OK: The Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to warm and be dry today and tomorrow with high pressure building to the west. There is no foreseeable chance of precipitation throughout the region, and the dip in temperatures yesterday are expected to build back up today and tomorrow. Winds across the region will decrease a bit today but return to gusty conditions tomorrow. A building high pressure zone over the central Rockies will cause wind directions to switch to a southerly direction both today and tomorrow. High winds and continued low humidity, 10 to 20% in most areas rising to about 40% in northern Oklahoma, will exacerbate the current efforts to control wild fires. A red flag warning for fire danger is posted for an area from central Texas northward across eastern Oklahoma. To the north, in Oklahoma, temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s today. Overnight temperatures will remain above freezing but in the thirties. Temperatures will remain in the same range tomorrow. In Texas highs today will reach into the 60s to low 70s across the region. Nighttime temperatures will remain above freezing in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrows highs will be about the same. Humidity will remain low during the day with values in the 20 - 30% across the region.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over eastern Texas towards the Gulf Coast. The trajectories are associated with sinking atmospheric conditions that are characteristically poor for pollen entrainment and travel. However, warm daytime temperatures, clear skies and low relative humidity are excellent conditions for pollen release.


OUTLOOK: *** Low threat *** Conditions are very good for pollen release today, especially with the high shift in relative humidity between nighttime and low daytime levels. However, the severe drought throughout the region may be preventing full maturation of the cones. At this time increased levels of atmospheric pollen to the south along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau indicates pollination is occurring throughout the region. Atmospheric conditions are poor for entrainment and travel as they are characterized by sinking air. Pollen entrained and moving so close to the ground is more susceptible to impaction on other vegetation resulting in low downwind concentrations. Therefore there is a low threat to downwind communities. The southerly wind direction excludes any potential impact to Oklahoma City, Tulsa or beyond the region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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