The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 Jan 06

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thurs. and Fri., Jan 05 and Jan 06. TX/OK: The Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to warm and be dry today and tomorrow with high pressure building to the west and to the south. There is no foreseeable chance of precipitation throughout the region, the dip in temperatures yesterday are expected to even out today and tomorrow in the low 60s to the north and the mid 60s to the south. The high pressure to the west will funnel cooler air across the northern region resulting in low temperatures near freezing in northern Oklahoma Winds across the region will be gusty today then relax tomorrow region wide. A building high pressure zone over the central Rockies will maintain the current north to south wind directions both today and tomorrow. High winds and continued low humidity, ~20% in most areas rising to about 40% in northern Oklahoma, will exacerbate the current efforts to control wild fires. A red flag warning for fire danger is posted for an area from central Texas eastward with warnings posted in Oklahoma.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over eastern Texas towards the Gulf Coast border with Louisiana. The trajectories are associated with sinking atmospheric conditions that are characteristically poor for pollen entrainment and travel. However, warm daytime temperatures, clear skies and low relative humidity are excellent conditions for pollen release.


OUTLOOK: *** Low threat *** Conditions are very good for pollen release today and tomorrow. At this time increased levels of atmospheric pollen to the south along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau indicates pollination is occurring throughout the region. Atmospheric conditions are poor for entrainment and travel as they are characterized by sinking air. Pollen entrained and moving so close to the ground is more susceptible to impaction on other vegetation resulting in low downwind concentrations. Therefore there is a low threat to downwind communities. The southerly wind direction excludes any potential impact to Oklahoma City, Tulsa or beyond the region. In addition the eastward movement of pollen should exclude any significant impact to Dallas/Fort Worth or the longer travel distances to the Houston metropolitan area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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