The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Severe

San Antonio

Severe

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2006


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Thurs. and Fri., Jan 05 and Jan 06. TX/OK: The Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to warm and be dry today and tomorrow with high pressure building to the west and to the south. There is no foreseeable chance of precipitation throughout the region, the dip in temperatures yesterday are expected to even out today and tomorrow in the low 60s to the north and the mid 60s to the south. The high pressure to the west will funnel cooler air across the northern region resulting in low temperatures near freezing in northern Oklahoma Winds across the region will be gusty today then relax tomorrow region wide. A building high pressure zone over the central Rockies will maintain the current north to south wind directions both today and tomorrow. High winds and continued low humidity, ~20% in most areas rising to about 40% in northern Oklahoma, will exacerbate the current efforts to control wild fires. A red flag warning for fire danger is posted for an area from central Texas eastward with warnings posted in Oklahoma.

Trajectory weather:
The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the South backed by strong winds from a High pressure zone over the central Rocky Mountains. All of the trajectories are associated with sinking atmospheric conditions that are poor for entrainment and travel. Temperatures will be warm with locations reaching into the mid to upper 60s today and tomorrow. Low relative humidity, less than 30% and strong winds throughout the Edwards Plateau will be good for pollen release and dispersal. Very high pollen counts were recorded yesterday in Austin suggesting that pollination is in full swing. Movement of entrained pollen should be somewhat reduced because of the poor atmospheric conditions, however all indications are that we are in the primary period of pollen release, therefore significant amounts of pollen should be released from the trees and may significantly impact downwind communities.


OUTLOOK: ***
Severe to Low threat***
Temperatures and humidity are optimal for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau, the severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season but very high atmospheric counts in Austin indicate that cones are ripening and dispersing their pollen load. Strong winds will bring severe concentrations from the Edwards Plateau into San Antonio, other regions along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau as well as communities in southern most Texas. Greater, near ground level wind movement on the Edwards Plateau should filter out significant amounts of pollen, however with high concentrations available for entrainment significant concentrations should be delivered downwind. Without a major upwind source and the Arbuckle population trajectory showing movement towards the east, Dallas/ Fort Worth is expected to have a low threat for significant pollen concentrations. The Austin area extending north towards Waco, which borders the main Juniperus ashei population, will see Moderate to Severe pollen concentrations within the atmosphere. A Severe threat exists both today and tomorrow for communities in south Texas such as San Antonio, New Braunfels, San Marco. These conditions can extend as far south as Corpus Christi, Laredo and Brownsville. The southerly wind direction will be maintained overnight into tomorrow, therefore affected areas should continue to be on guard for heightened atmospheric concentrations.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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