The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 6 Jan 06


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Fri and Sat, Jan 06 and 07. TX/OK: High pressure remains over the central Rockies and builds over central Texas today and tomorrow. High pressure to the northwest will continue to funnel cooler air southward as the southern high pressure will bring warmer air northward. In Oklahoma low temperatures will be below freezing both nights with daytime highs in the upper 40s and low 50s today rising into the 60s tomorrow. In Texas low temperatures will approach freezing both nights, especially in the western Edwards Plateau region. Day time temperatures will remain warm for this time of year, rising significantly on Saturday. Temperatures in the 60s today will be followed tomorrow by readings in the mid to upper 70s. Humidity will remain very low during the day, region wide and there is again no chance of precipitation over the weekend. Winds will move from the south to southwest but should be calmer than the last few days. Wind speeds will increase overnight and into Sunday as a dry line from a developing low pressure to the northwest moves across the region.


Trajectory weather:
The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the northeast over eastern Oklahoma and the Tulsa region. The trajectories are associated with sinking atmospheric conditions and show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. Wind direction remains similar on Saturday but with greater wind speed and more buoyant atmospheric conditions.


OUTLOOK: ***
Moderate threat ***
Conditions are very good for pollen release today and better on Saturday. Movement of the trajectories over the Tulsa region presents a Moderate threat today, as conditions for entrainment and long-distance travel are poor. Trajectories remain along the same path for tomorrow but more buoyant atmospheric conditions will increase the threat to severe.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas. 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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