The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 6 Jan 06

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, Jan 07 and 08. TX/OK: High pressure remains over the central Rockies and central Texas today and tomorrow. High pressure to the northwest will continue to funnel cooler air southward, as the southern high pressure will bring warmer air northward. As these two systems continue to evolve a low-pressure system will build just tot he east of the Rockies in the central Great Plains. A warm front associated with this system will move across the Oklahoma region late Saturday and Sunday. In Oklahoma, low temperatures will be just below freezing both nights with daytime highs in the upper in the 60s and warm. In Texas, low temperatures will approach freezing both nights, especially in the western Edwards Plateau region. Day time temperatures will remain warm for this time of year especially on Saturday with readings in the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures on Sunday will decrease by five to ten degrees. Humidity will remain very low during the day, region wide and there is again no chance of precipitation over the weekend. Winds will move from the south to southwest but should be calmer than the last few days. Wind speeds will increase overnight and into Sunday as a warm front from the low pressure to the northwest moves across the region.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the northeast over eastern Oklahoma and the Tulsa region. The trajectories are associated with buoyant atmospheric conditions and show good characteristics for entrainment and travel. Wind direction remains from the southwest to the northeast Saturday but switches to a north to south direction on Sunday.


OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat today, low threat Sunday *** Conditions are very good for pollen release today and tomorrow. Movement of the trajectories over the Tulsa region presents a Severe threat today, as conditions for entrainment and long-distance travel are good. The threat drops to low with the turn of the wind direction overnight and into Sunday.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas. 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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