The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Severe, Low (Sunday) |
Austin |
Severe, Severe (Sunday) |
San Antonio |
Low, Low (Sunday) |
Date Issued: 6 January 2006
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Sat
and Sun, Jan 07 and 08. TX/OK: High
pressure remains over the central Rockies and central Texas today and tomorrow. High pressure to the northwest
will continue to funnel cooler air southward, as the southern high pressure will bring warmer air northward. As
these two systems continue to evolve a low-pressure system will build just tot he east of the Rockies in the central
Great Plains. A warm front associated with this system will move across the Oklahoma region late Saturday and
Sunday. In Oklahoma, low temperatures will be just below freezing both nights with daytime highs in the upper
in the 60s and warm. In Texas, low temperatures will approach freezing both nights, especially in the western
Edwards Plateau region. Day time temperatures will remain warm for this time of year especially on Saturday with
readings in the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures on Sunday will decrease by five to ten degrees. Humidity will
remain very low during the day, region wide and there is again no chance of precipitation over the weekend. Winds
will move from the south to southwest but should be calmer than the last few days. Wind speeds will increase overnight
and into Sunday as a warm front from the low pressure to the northwest moves across the region.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards
Plateau Texas move to the northeast today. The trajectories are associated with sinking atmospheric conditions
both today and tomorrow and show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. The trajectories shift back to
nearly due east on Sunday.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat *** Temperatures
are very good for pollen release today and tomorrow. High concentrations of pollen in the Austin area indicate
that full pollination is occurring within the populations. Because of this pollination coupled with a general
northeast wind direction today and nearly straight east on Sunday, areas to the east of the Edwards Plateau should
expect severe threats. This would include Austin to Waco, and perhaps as far south as San Marco. The trajectories
from the western side of the Plateau will move over the Dallas/ Fort Worth area today, then flattens to a more
easterly direction tomorrow. A severe threat therefore exists for the Dallas/Fort Worth area today diminishing
overnight and into tomorrow until it reaches a low threat on Sunday.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SAN ANGELO
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast
gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along
the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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