The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Severe, Low (Sunday)

Austin

Severe, Severe (Sunday)

San Antonio

Low, Low (Sunday)

 

Date Issued: 6 January 2006


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, Jan 07 and 08. TX/OK: High pressure remains over the central Rockies and central Texas today and tomorrow. High pressure to the northwest will continue to funnel cooler air southward, as the southern high pressure will bring warmer air northward. As these two systems continue to evolve a low-pressure system will build just tot he east of the Rockies in the central Great Plains. A warm front associated with this system will move across the Oklahoma region late Saturday and Sunday. In Oklahoma, low temperatures will be just below freezing both nights with daytime highs in the upper in the 60s and warm. In Texas, low temperatures will approach freezing both nights, especially in the western Edwards Plateau region. Day time temperatures will remain warm for this time of year especially on Saturday with readings in the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures on Sunday will decrease by five to ten degrees. Humidity will remain very low during the day, region wide and there is again no chance of precipitation over the weekend. Winds will move from the south to southwest but should be calmer than the last few days. Wind speeds will increase overnight and into Sunday as a warm front from the low pressure to the northwest moves across the region.

Trajectory weather:
The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the northeast today. The trajectories are associated with sinking atmospheric conditions both today and tomorrow and show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. The trajectories shift back to nearly due east on Sunday.


OUTLOOK: ***
Severe threat ***
Temperatures are very good for pollen release today and tomorrow. High concentrations of pollen in the Austin area indicate that full pollination is occurring within the populations. Because of this pollination coupled with a general northeast wind direction today and nearly straight east on Sunday, areas to the east of the Edwards Plateau should expect severe threats. This would include Austin to Waco, and perhaps as far south as San Marco. The trajectories from the western side of the Plateau will move over the Dallas/ Fort Worth area today, then flattens to a more easterly direction tomorrow. A severe threat therefore exists for the Dallas/Fort Worth area today diminishing overnight and into tomorrow until it reaches a low threat on Sunday.



Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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