The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2006

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wed and Thurs, Jan 11 and 12. TX/OK: Warm-up today with temperatures running 20 degrees warmer than yesterday in some areas, especially in northern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be in the low 60s in Oklahoma and the low 70s in Texas. Skies will be clear with strong and gusty southerly winds. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s. On Thursday skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday; however, the next cold front will begin moving into the area and the winds will gradually shift to westerly and northwesterly in the afternoon. The weak cold front will push across the entire region on Friday

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the eastern side of Edwards Plateau Texas move to the northeast today over eastern Oklahoma and Missouri. These trajectories are associated with good conditions for entrainment and travel. The trajectories from the western side of the plateau move to the northeast today but later shift to the east and southeast. Thursday's trajectories begin moving east, then shift to the southeast and then south. Thursday's trajectories do not show good characteristics for pollen transport.

OUTLOOK: *** High risk *** Conditions are good for pollen release today and tomorrow. Trajectories show good characteristics for transport today but not on Thursday. As a result the exposure risk on Thursdays will be more important for those people living close to populations of mountain cedar trees. The severe drought throughout the region may reduce the overall pollen load this season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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