The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 Jan 06

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday and Saturday, Jan 13 and 14. TX/OK: Somewhat cooler (although still above normal) temperatures across the region today in the wake of the cold front that moved across the region Thursday. Skies will be mostly clear with strong to gusty northwest winds. Daytime highs on Friday will be in the 50s in Oklahoma and the 60s in Texas. Winds will decrease this evening and overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s. Southerly winds will return on Saturday with temperatures in the 60s throughout the region and clear to partly cloudy skies.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over eastern  Texas on strong northerly winds. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into the area.  Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered out  Sunny skies will prevail across the region with overnight temperatures below freezing. Tomorrow's trajectories move north across Oklahoma into eatern Kansas and Missouri.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Friday, Moderate on Saturday *** Favorable conditions for pollen release; however, trajectories today show poor characteristisc for pollen transport on Friday. Pollen concentrations may be elevated near populations of the trees. Cold temperatures tonight might limit pollen release tomorrow to the afternoon hours. Trajectory conditions tomorrow look good for pollen entratinment and transport. Therefore there is a risk for moderate concentrations across Oklahoma tomorrow. The severe drought throughout the region may reduce the pollen load this season

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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