The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 Jan 06

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Jan 16 and 17. TX/OK: A cold front is pushing into the region during the day today with winds shifting to the northwest as the front passes through. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially in Texas, east of I-35. Daytime highs on Monday will be from the upper 50s to mid-60s in Oklahoma and upper 60s to mid 70s in Texas. Overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s. Tuesday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler with moderate to strong northwest winds. Highs in the upper 40s in Oklahoma and the upper 50s to low 60s in Texas. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy and a red flag fire warning will be in effect for some counties on Tuesday. Warm temperatures and southerly winds will return on Wednesday as the cold front passes out of the region.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over eastern Texas and into the Gulf on northwest winds. The trajectories show less than ideal characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into the area. Cloudy skies and mild temperatures will prevail across the source area today. Tuesday's trajectories begin moving to the southeast but shift back to the north as the southerly winds return late on Tuesday. Tuesday's trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen transport.  Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered.  Mostly sunny skies will prevail across the region Tuesday but low temperatures and strong gusty winds will occur at the source

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today/Low risk on Tuesday *** Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release today, less favorable tomorrow.  In addition, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel with cold heavy air moving across the region at ground level especially tomorrow. Pollen levels may be elevated near mountain cedar populations but a low threat exists for downwind travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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