The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2006

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Jan 16 and 17. TX/OK: A cold front is pushing into the region during the day today with winds shifting to the northwest as the front passes through. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially in Texas, east of I-35. Daytime highs on Monday will be from the upper 50s to mid-60s in Oklahoma and upper 60s to mid 70s in Texas. Overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s. Tuesday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler with moderate to strong northwest winds. Highs in the upper 40s in Oklahoma and the upper 50s to low 60s in Texas. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy and a red flag fire warning will be in effect for some counties on Tuesday. Warm temperatures and southerly winds will return on Wednesday as the cold front passes out of the region.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Texas begin moving north and then shift to the southeast towards the Gulf of Mexico. Trajectoriese from the western side of the Edwards Plateau move to the southeast.  Each of the trajectories shows mixed characteristics associated with the cold air that is moving into the region. Conditions at the sources will be warm today with cloudy skies. Trajectories on Tuesday begin moving to the southeast and then turn back north late on Tuesday as the cold front moves through the region. The atmospheric conditions associated with these trajectories are not particularly good for pollen entrainment and transport downwind.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High risk *** Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release although showers may decrease the pollen levels in some areas. Trajectory characteristics are not conducive to atmospheric entrainment and travel downwind. Although pollen release is likely to occur, transport is limited and the areas along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau towards the Gulf of Mexico are at greatest risk of exposure. 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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