The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 Jan 06

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday and Saturday, Jan 20 and 21. TX/OK: A cold front moves through the region on Friday shifting winds from southerly winds to northwest winds. Daytime highs in northern Oklahoma are likely to occur around noon with temperatures dropping into the 50s in the afternoon. Front will pass later in southern Oklahoma and Texas dropping temperatures in late afternoon or early evening. Skies will be partly to mostly clouds with gusty winds. Nighttime lows will range from the upper 20s in Oklahoma to the low 40s in southern Texas. Saturday will be partly to mostly cloudy with moderate northerly winds. Highs will be in the low 50s in Oklahoma and upper 50s in Texas. Still above average temperatures for January but much colder than the past two days. Another front is expected on Sunday with a greater chance of precipitation especially in Texas.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the east. The trajectories at different altitudes move in different directions as the winds begin shifting ahead of the cold front. The trajectories show mixed characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen. Cloudy skies and warm temperatures will prevail at the source area today but low temperatures expected overnight.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate risk Friday, Low risk Saturday *** Favorable conditions for pollen release on Friday before the front passes through the region. As the wind shifts to the east and then southeast, pollen will move away from the population centers of Tulsa and Oklahoma City. Overnight low temperatures will delay pollen release on Saturday resulting in a lower exposure risk

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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