The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 January 2006

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday and Saturday, Jan 20 and 21. TX/OK: A cold front moves through the region on Friday shifting winds from southerly winds to northwest winds. Daytime highs in northern Oklahoma are likely to occur around noon with temperatures dropping into the 50s in the afternoon. Front will pass later in southern Oklahoma and Texas dropping temperatures in late afternoon or early evening. Skies will be partly to mostly clouds with gusty winds. Nighttime lows will range from the upper 20s in Oklahoma to the low 40s in southern Texas. Saturday will be partly to mostly cloudy with moderate northerly winds. Highs will be in the low 50s in Oklahoma and upper 50s in Texas. Still above average temperatures for January but much colder than the past two days. Another front is expected on Sunday with a greater chance of precipitation especially in Texas.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Texas move to the east northeast towards Arkansas, whereas those from the western side of the Edwards Plateau show circular motion around west Texas as the winds shift around with the frontal system. Trajectories from the eastern side show reasonably good characteristics for pollen transport. Those from the western side shows characteristics associated with the cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level. Conditions at the sources will be warm today with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures are expected overnight with cool temperatures tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** High Friday / Moderate Saturday *** Good conditions for pollen release on Friday. Cloudy skies with dry windy conditions and warm temperatures on Friday before the cold front passes through. Low morning temperatures will inhibit pollen release tomorrow morning for a moderate risk.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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