The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 Jan 06

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Jan 23 and 24. TX/OK: For the next two days the region should see clear to partly cloundy skies, light northerly winds and mild temperatures. Patchy fog in Oklahoma should burn off by noon on Monday leaving temperatures ranging from the low 50s in northern Oklahoma to the low 60s in south Texas. Overnight lows will be in the 30s throughout the region. Light winds and partly cloudy skies will continue on Tuesday with temperatures in the 60s.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south and then east over eastern  Texas on light northerly winds. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into the area.  Sunny skies will prevail at the source but low morning temperatures may limit pollen release to the afternoon hours. Low overnight temperatures are expected tonight as well also limiting pollen relase tomorrow. Tuesday's trajectories begin moving south then circle around to the north on Wednesday as southerly winds return. Trajectories characteristics on Tuesday are less then ideal for pollen transport.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate risk *** Conditions are favorable for pollen release on Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Low morning temperatures will reduce the chance of any significant pollen release.  Cold temperatures tonight again tonight will also slow pollen release. In addition, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and downwind travel. Any pollen release is likely to remain close to the sources of mountain cedar trees.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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