The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

High

San Antonio

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 27 January 2006


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Friday and Saturday, Jan 27 and 28. TX/OK: Warm temperatures and southerly winds continue in the Oklahoma, Texas region. Skies are cloudy and humidities are up. There is a good chance of much needed precipitation in the region as a strong upper level system moves through the area. The best chance of rain are Friday night and Saturday morning. Strong thunderstorms are possible with this system. Temperatures on Friday range from the mid to upper 50s in Oklahoma to the mid 60s to the low 70s in Texas. With the cloud cover the overnight lows will remain in the upper 40s to upper 50s in the region. Highs on Saturday will range for the mid 60s to the mid 70s after the rain. Winds on Saturday will be moderate from the southwest to west.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the north over central and west Texas, central and western Oklahoma and Kansas then turn shift to the northeast. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. Cloudy skies will prevail across the region with mild temperatures and moderate to strong gusty winds. Saturday's trajectories move to the east but show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel. In addition, the likelihood of rain in the region may reduce pollen release on Saturday. Forecasts will be updated tomorrow when we will know more about the precipitation.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today *** Good conditions for pollen release.  Cloudy skies with moderate winds and warm temperatures are good conditions for pollen release today. Predicted rain tomorrow may eliminate the risk. We will update our forecasts on Saturday morning.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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