The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 Jan 06

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Jan 30 and 31. TX/OK: Mild temperatures continue across the region today. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy with moderate north to northwest winds. Daytime highs on Monday will be in the upper 50s in Oklahoma and the upper 60s to low 70s in Texas. Winds will shift back to southerly late tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 30s throughout the region. Tuesday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s with strong southerly winds returning. The air will be dry and we may see red flag fire watch in effect in spite of the rain this past weekend.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over northeast  Texas on northerly winds and then turn back north over central and eastern Oklahoma late tonight when the southerly winds return. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as the air-masses are moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered. Skies are clear and the temperatures at the source are favorable for pollen release. Conditions at the source will be warmer tomorrow and the trajectories from the Arbuckles move to the north, northeast with good characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate today/High Tuesday *** Favorable conditions for pollen release today and even better conditions tomorrow. Trajectory characteristics are not conducive to entrainment and travel on Monday, so pollen is likely to stay close to the source area. Conditions for downwind travel improve tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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