The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 1 February 2006


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wed. and Thurs., Feb 1 and 2. TX/OK: A weak cold front will move through western and central Oklahoma today dropping temperatures a few degrees from Tuesday. Daytime highs in Oklahoma on Wednesday will be in the mid 60s with southerly winds ahead of the front and in the low 60s with northerly winds in areas where the front has passed through. Skies in Oklahoma will be clear to partly cloudy. Highs in Texas today will range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s with variable winds, cloudy skies, and a chance of scattered showers. A second front will move through the region late tonight bringing north, northwest winds to the region tomorrow. Nighttime lows will range from the upper 30s to the upper 40s. Highs on Thursday with range from the 60s in Oklahoma to the mid 70s in Texas. Skies with be partly cloudy with variable winds.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Texas move around east Texas; whereas those from the western side of the Edwards Plateau move to the southeast towards the Gulf of Mexico. The trajectories shows mixed characteristics with some showing conditions conducive to transport while those from the western side of the Plateau show less favorable characteristics. Conditions at the sources will be warm today with mostly cloudy skies and a chance of scattered showers. Trajectories on Thursday largely travel to the southeast and east but show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen.


OUTLOOK: *** High risk *** Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Trajectories are not entirely favorable for pollen transport so the pollen is likely to remain close to the mountain cedar populations.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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