The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 3 February 2006



Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Fri, Sat, and Sun, Feb 3-5. TX/OK: A weak cold front moves across the region today with moderate to gusty northerly winds. Daytime highs in Oklahoma will range from the upper 50s to low 60s and in Texas from the mid 60s to the low 70s. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers in north central Texas. Lows tonight will be in the 30s. Winds will return to a southerly flow on Saturday afternoon and become strong on Sunday ahead of the next cold front which will move into the area on Monday. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid to upper 50s in Oklahoma with partly cloudy skies and in the upper 60s to low 70s in Texas with clear skies. A red flag fire alert is likely to be in effect in several counties over the weekend. The cold front moving into the area on Monday will probably drop temperature to seasonal levels or even below normal temperatures.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over north central Texas and then curve back on Saturday once the southerly flow returns. Today's trajectories are associated with cold area and do not have characteristics conducive to pollen transport. Conditions at the source are warm with partly cloudy skies and northerly winds. Trajectories on Saturday and Sunday move to the north (Saturday) and northeast (Sunday) with mixed characteristics for transport. Conditions at the source area will be mild during the day but overnight temperatures will be cold..


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High *** Conditions are favorable for pollen release today and mostly favorable on Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows tonight and Saturday night might limit pollen release to the afternoon hours on Saturday and Sunday. Trajectories are not conducive to pollen transport on Friday and show mixed characteristics over the weekend. The majority of the pollen is likely to remain close to the source areas on Friday. Pollen transport is more likely to occur on Saturday and Sunday from both the Oklahoma and Texas mountain cedar populations putting sensitive individuals in Oklahoma City and Tulsa at some risk.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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