The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low/Moderate late tomorrow

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 1 Jan 2007


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Mon and Tues, Jan 1 and 2. TX/OK: Clear to partly cloudy skies with seasonable day time temperatures and cool nights will be in place today and Tuesday in the region. Day time highs will range from the upper 40s to low 60s and night time lows from the mide 20s to low 30s. Winds today will be moderate and from the north in Oklahoma. In Texas winds will be from the north in central Texas and east, northeast in west Texas. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s with light variable winds. Winds in Oklahoma will be shifting tomorrow initially from the northeast in the morning and shifting to south, southwest winds in the afternoon. In Texas winds tomorrow will be from the east, northeast.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over south central Oklahoma and north Texas then turn west. The trajectories are associated with a sinking air and show only moderate characteristics for entrainment and travel. Conditions at the source are cold this morning only reaching the favorable range pollen release in mid afternoon. This will limit the amount of pollen available for dispersal on Monday. Trajectories on Tuesday move to the northeast on light winds. Trajectories only show moderate characteristics for dispersal. Temperatures will be low overnight restricting pollen release to afternoon hours.



OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate threat *** Conditions are marginal for pollen release today and only slightly better on Tuesday. Temperatures will only reach the favorable range in the mid afternoon, limiting the time of pollen dispersal. However, we are near the season peak period so there may be significant amounts of pollen ready for dispersal.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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