The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

MIXED

Austin

MIXED

San Antonio

MIXED

 

Date Issued: 3 January 2007


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wed and Thurs, Jan 3 and 4. TX/OK: An upper level low moves into the region today brining increased cloud cover and increasing chances of rain. Rain chances will increase today in Texas and Thursday in Oklahoma. Daytimes highs today will be in the mid 50s across most of the region, although west Texas will struggle to reach the upper 40s. Rain chances are greatest in west and central Texas today. Oklahoma will have partly to mostly cloudy skies during the day with rain chances increasing somewhat tonight and tomorrow. Light to moderate winds will be from the south in Oklahoma and variable in Texas. Overnight low temperatures will be mild, in the 40s throughout the region. Highs tomorrow will range from the mid 50s in the north to the mid 60s in southern areas. Rain chances will be ending tomorrow night.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Edwards Plateau reflect the variable winds today in Texas. Trajectories from the east circle around central Texas today and then move to the north tomorrow. Trajectories from the Junction area move to the southeast and then turn north, while those from the San Angelo area move to the north, northeast. The trajectories show moderate to poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. Conditions at the source areas on the Plateau are variable. Temperatures are in the favorable range on the eastern side of the Plateau. Western areas are cold this morning which will limit pollen release to the afternoon hours. However increasing chances of rain will limit pollen release. Thursday's trajectories all move to the northeast. Temperatures will be mild but rain chances will again limit pollen release in some areas.


OUTLOOK: *** Mixed threat throughout the region *** Cold morning temperatures will limit pollen release to the afternoon hours today in some areas of the plateau; however, the chance of rain will further limit pollen release. Pollen release is likely in areas with no rain this afternoon but rain chances increase later this afternoon and tonight, resulting in a mixed threat throughout the area. As always, areas with no rain may see significant pollen release since we are near the season peak period.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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